The Best FPL Transfer Tips For Gameweek 18
It’s important to note that the Gameweek 18 deadline of the 2023/24 FPL season is approaching quickly, and we’re entering the festive December period. With three deadlines in ten days, missing the deadline is a real possibility, so you must keep track of it. During Gameweek 18, Manchester City and Brentford will not be playing, and although many people may consider selling their Manchester City assets, it’s important to consider the bigger picture. While it may seem like a good idea to sell Haaland now and buy him back in two game weeks at a cheaper price, it’s worth holding on to your other Manchester City assets if you can bench them this week.
Manchester City will have their double game week anytime between Gameweek 21 and Gameweek 26, so keeping these assets will save you a future transfer. Also, if the game between Bournemouth and Luton Town in Gameweek 17 is called off, we will see those teams doubling soon. Don’t forget to check out the chart by Mikkel Tokvam to see the possibility of a double game week and a blank game week. Please just go ahead and make the right decisions to maximise your points.
It is important to note that Gameweek 26 fixtures become blanks if either side reaches the EFL Cup Final and either side reach the FA Cup 5th Round.
These Gameweek 26 fixtures are at risk of becoming Blanks:
Chelsea vs Spurs
Man Utd vs Fulham
Liverpool vs Luton
West Ham vs Brentford
The Semi-final lineup for the EFL Cup will be
Chelsea, Fulham, Boro and one of Liverpool/West Ham.
Gameweek 18 Odds
For the odds, I am using FPL Review’s Massive Data Model’s Raw Data. This data is based on the assumption that a player plays 90 minutes and comes from the site’s Massive Data Model, which is known to be more predictive than cleaned Bookmaker Odds. Aston Villa is top for Clean Sheet odds at 50%, while Fulham and Newcastle United make the top 3 with odds of 38% each to keep a Clean Sheet. Sheffield United, Everton, and Luton Town are at the bottom of the Clean Sheet data.
Ollie Watkins tops the chart of Gameweek 18 Scorer Data, with 0.75 eGoals/90 and Anytime Scoring % of 53%, with Callum Wilson and Alexander Isak making it to the top three with Anytime Scoring % of 49% and 45% respectively. The data is based on the assumption that a player plays 90 minutes.
We’ve partnered with Drafthound to bring you analysis on fixtures, projected points, and more for the 2023-24 FPL season. Signing up through this link to Drafthound helps us grow, so if you want access to these features, please sign up through our link. If you haven’t checked out Dylan McBennett‘s article on Kieran McKenna and his ascent with Ipswich town, consider to give it a go. Let’s dive into our transfer targets for Gameweek 18.
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo (£4.5 million, Defender, Aston Villa)
If you’re looking for a reliable defender for Gameweek 18, consider Ezri Konsa from Aston Villa. With Pau Torres injured, Konsa is the safest bet in the Villa defence. They have the best odds of keeping a clean sheet against Sheffield United this week. And at a price of just 4.5 million, Konsa is an affordable option to bench in tougher fixtures.
Konsa also rotates well with Arsenal defenders. For example, in Gameweek 18, when Arsenal play Liverpool, Villa play Sheffield United. And in Gameweek 23, these two teams play their reverse fixtures.
So far this season, Villa have won all eight of their games, scoring 25 goals and conceding just five. Konsa has had one assist, but he also carries a significant goal threat and is due a goal. He might just get it against Sheffield United, who are vulnerable defending set-pieces. According to Drafthound’s model, Konsa is predicted to score 5.2 points in Gameweek 18 and 20.8 points in the next five games.
Dan Burn (£4.4 million, Defender, Newcastle United)
Newcastle United’s campaign has been hit hard by injuries and exits from the Champions League and the League Cup. However, the return of Dan Burn and Sven Botman to the line-up could be the spark they need to revive their season. Although Kenilworth Road is a tough place to play, and Newcastle’s away form has not been the best, they have the second-best odds of keeping a clean sheet this game week.
Burn is the first-choice defender for Newcastle and also poses a significant goal threat. Newcastle has conceded the fourth-lowest expected goals (xG) this season, making Burn an excellent transfer choice for the long run. With two goals already in the league this season, Burn has an average expected goal involvement (xGI) of 0.21 per 90 minutes.
Richarlison de Andrade (£6.7 million, Midfielder, Tottenham Hotspur)
Richarlison, who had been struggling with mental health issues at the beginning of the season, seems to have found his happy space and it is reflected in his recent performances. The Brazilian international has scored three times in his last two games in the league, and I expect him to continue his good form when he faces his former club, Everton in Gameweek 18. He is playing through the middle of the pitch as a number 9 and potentially on penalty kick duties when Son leaves for the AFC Cup, which makes Richarlison a very lucrative option.
So far, he has been averaging an expected goals (xG) of 0.52 per 90 minutes and an expected goal involvement (xGI) of 0.61 per 90 minutes. Spurs have good fixtures in the long term, facing Everton (H), Brighton (A), and Bournemouth (H) in the immediate three games. Drafthound’s model predicts 4.8 points in this game week and 23.4 points in the next five games.
Dominic Solanke (£6.8 million, Forward, Bournemouth)
If you don’t have Ollie Watkins, you should consider getting him as a priority transfer before Gameweek 18, as he is the optimal captain, according to most models. But if you already have Watkins and are looking for a replacement for Darwin, then Solanke is an excellent choice. There’s very little to dislike about Solanke as a pick. He is guaranteed to play the full 90 minutes, is responsible for penalty kicks, and has favourable fixtures coming up.
Bournemouth will be playing against Nottingham Forest (A) and Fulham (H) in their next two games and will have a double game week when they play against Luton Town in the future, which makes Solanke an excellent choice. The former Liverpool striker has scored 8 goals and 1 assist from an xGI of 0.57 per 90 minutes. According to Drafthound’s model, Solanke is predicted to score 4.4 points against Nottingham Forest and 21.5 points in the next five games.
It would be wise to wait and listen to the press conferences before making any transfers as we have a few yellow flags in our teams. Also, if you have been enjoying my content, I would highly recommend following me on X at @psb_punk for more insight and content. I wish everyone the best of luck for Gameweek 14, and I hope you all get those green arrows!
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