The Best FPL Transfer Tips For Gameweek 14
The deadline for Gameweek 14 is approaching, but before that, some crucial European fixtures await our FPL assets. Newcastle will play in Paris and need a favourable result to stay in the UCL. Manchester United must win against Galatasaray in Turkey to continue their run in Europe. Arsenal aims to secure top spot by winning against Lens at The Emirates, so the last game away at Eindhoven can be a dead rubber. Brighton faces a tricky encounter away at Athens and needs a positive result to finish top in their group. Villa must win against Legia at Villa Park to finish top of the table.
It is crucial to keep an eye on player minutes, especially from these teams, as Gameweek 15 has a mid-week deadline and we could see rotation. Also, it is safe not to make early transfers and wait until the press conferences to make the best possible decisions. Legomané‘s chart below provides a clear illustration of the upcoming fixture congestion from Gameweek 13 to Gameweek 20.
As we move forward, every transfer becomes increasingly significant, especially for those who have already used their wildcard. Manchester City and Brentford, the two popular teams for FPL picks, will blank in Gameweek 18 but may double in Gameweek 20. Successfully navigating through this period may pose a challenge unless you have a clear long-term plan. Before diving into the article, let’s take a look at the odds for Gameweek 14.
Gameweek 14 Odds
For the odds, I am using FPL Review’s Massive Data Model’s Raw Data. This data is based on the assumption that a player plays 90 minutes and comes from the site’s Massive Data Model, which is known to be more predictive than cleaned Bookmaker Odds. Arsenal, Liverpool, and Brentford make the top three in Clean Sheet odds, while Fulham, Tottenham Hotspur, and Wolves are at the bottom of the Clean Sheet data.
Erling Haaland tops the chart of Gameweek 14 Scorer Data, with 0.98 eGoals/90 and Anytime Scoring % of 62%, with Mohamed Salah and Darwin making it to the top three with Anytime Scoring % of 50% and 49% respectively.
We’ve partnered with Drafthound to bring you analysis on fixtures, projected points, and more for the 2023-24 FPL season. Signing up through this link to Drafthound helps us grow, so if you want access to these features, please sign up through our link. If you have not checked out my Gameweek 13 article, you may do so as it is relevant to Gameweek 14. Let’s dive into our transfer targets for Gameweek 14.
Gameweek 14 Transfer Tips
Ethan Pinnock (£4.6 million, Defender, Brentford)
Luton Town has been performing well in attack at Kenilworth Road, but their away games have been lacklustre, with only six goals scored from seven games. This puts them in the bottom four for xG in away games, with only Burnley and Sheffield United scoring less. Therefore, Ethan Pinnock is a good FPL transfer for Gameweek 14. It’s worth paying the extra 0.1 million for Pinnock over Kristoffer Ajer because Pinnock is almost certain to play the full 90 minutes and is a massive threat from set-pieces.
Pinnock has generated an xGI of 0.35 against Arsenal and 0.26 against Chelsea, from which he scored a goal. On average, he has been generating an xGI of 0.13 per 90 minutes this season. Even though Brentford will not be playing in Gameweek 18, Pinnock is still a good transfer because his price tag makes him easily benchable, or you may play the Free Hit chip in Gameweek 18.
Brentford has a great run of fixtures in the next eight game weeks, facing Luton Town (H), Sheffield United (A), Wolves (H), Crystal Palace (A), and Nottingham Forest (H) in this period. According to Drafthound, Brentford has the third-best odds of keeping a clean sheet in Gameweek 14 at 45%, and their model predicts Pinnock to score 4.5 points in the fixture against Luton Town.
Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.9 million, Defender, Liverpool)
Kieran Trippier received a yellow card during the game against Chelsea. He has now collected four yellow cards and will face a suspension for one match if he receives a fifth yellow card before Gameweek 19. As Newcastle has a hectic schedule, he may miss some games during this period, making it difficult for managers to bring him in ahead of Gameweek 14. In case you have extra money to spend, it might be better to consider Trent Alexander Arnold instead.
Trent’s next three fixtures are fantastic for earning huge points. He will play against Fulham (H), Sheffield United (A), and Crystal Palace (A) and may be substituted for Trippier when Newcastle’s fixtures become easier. Although Trent has not been as good as in previous seasons, there is still a lot of potential. He takes some set pieces, and Liverpool has been solid defensively lately, keeping three clean sheets in their last five games. Besides, Trent is good at accumulating bonus points.
Trent’s xGI has averaged 0.24 per 90 minutes. According to Drafthound, Liverpool has a 48% chance of keeping a clean sheet this game week, a 14% chance of scoring, and a 19% chance of assisting against Fulham. Moreover, their model predicts Trent to score 6.1 points in Gameweek 14 and 27.2 points in the next five games.
Note : I didn’t mention Arsenal defenders here since I already did in my Gameweek 13 article. If you don’t own any Arsenal defender, prioritize Gabriel and Saliba for transfer.
Cole Palmer (£5.3 million, Midfielder, Chelsea)
Priced at 5.0 million at the beginning of the season, Cole Palmer’s price has risen to 5.3 million owing to his four goals and three assists so far this season. Palmer has been exceptional after joining Chelsea from Manchester City and cemented his spot in the Chelsea starting XI. He, being on penalty kick duties makes him a more lucrative option. Chelsea’s Gameweek 14 opponents Brighton have not kept any clean sheet this season and will be without Lewis Dunk when they visit Stamford Bridge.
All these factors indicate that Palmer could have a field day. Chelsea’s fixtures from Gameweek 16 read Everton(A), Sheffield United(H), Wolves(A), Crystal Palace(H), Luton Town(A), and Fulham(H) indicate Palmer is a long-term good pick. The former Manchester City man has been averaging an xG of 0.63 per 90 minutes and an xA of 0.24 per 90 minutes so far this season.
Palmer has generated an xGI of more than 1 in five of the last six fixtures he has started in the league. Drafthound gives Palmer a healthy 36% odds of scoring and 20% odds of assisting in Gameweek 14. Furthermore, their model predicts him to score 5.7 points versus Brighton this game week and 28.1 points in the next five fixtures.
Morgan Gibbs-White (£5.7 million, Midfielder, Nottingham Forest)
If you have been following my Best Transfer Tips series, you must be aware of my admiration for Morgan Gibbs White. He is an exceptional player who has also made himself very relevant for FPL. In the last game against Brighton, he scored 12 points with four shots in the box from an expected goals involvement (xGI) of 1.57. With three returns in his last two games and a great set of fixtures until Gameweek 18, you should consider adding him to your team.
Gibbs White is also the designated penalty taker for Nottingham Forest, which increases his chances of scoring points. In Gameweek 18, when Manchester City and Brentford have no fixtures, and Arsenal and Liverpool face each other, Nottingham Forest will play Bournemouth at home, which should work in favour of Gibbs White owners. Nottingham Forest will play against Everton (H), Fulham (A), Wolves (A), Tottenham Hotspur (H), and Bournemouth (H), who are currently ninth, fourteenth, fifteenth, twelfth, and eighteenth, respectively, for expected goals conceded (xGC) this season.
Gibbs White has been averaging an expected goal involvement (xGI) of 0.38 per 90 minutes so far this season, which looks set to improve as Forest embarks on this set of fixtures. Drafthound backs Morgan to have 23% chances of scoring and 18% chances of assisting against Everton in Gameweek 14, further backing him to grab 4.5 points this game week and 22.0 points in the next five games.
Note : I didn’t mention Bryan Mbeumo here since I already did in my Gameweek 13 article. If you don’t own him, prioritize Mbeumo for transfer over Morgan Gibbs-White.
Darwin Núñez Ribeiro (£7.6 million, Forward, Liverpool)
In my previous article on Gameweek 13‘s Best Transfer Tips, I highlighted the scarcity of good forward options in the game at present. Almost all Fantasy Premier League managers have Erling Haaland in their teams, while every second manager has Ollie Watkins. However, I suggested Dominic Solanke as a viable choice for this game week in my Gameweek 13 article. Another option to consider is Odsonne Edouard, who is up against West Ham, a team with one of the weakest defences when measured by xG. Additionally, Edouard may also take penalty kicks in the absence of Eze who is currently injured.
However, if you’re looking for a high-potential player, then Darwin is the one you should strongly consider. Liverpool is set to play against Fulham at Anfield, which should be a favourable fixture as Fulham have been struggling lately. Liverpool’s qualification for the knockout round of the European competition seems secure, which means Darwin may get more opportunities to play. Furthermore, if Diogo Jota is out due to injury for a prolonged period, this will enhance Darwin’s expected minutes as there will be one less competitor for the spots.
In any case, there is no doubt that Darwin is Liverpool’s first choice. He has started five of the last six league games and has an xGI of 0.87 per 90 minutes this season. According to Drafthound’s model, Darwin has a 45% chance of scoring and a 21% chance of assisting in Gameweek 14. Additionally, the model predicts that he will score 5.5 points against Fulham and 26.4 points in the next five games.
It would be wise to wait until all the European games are over and listen to the press conferences before making any transfers. Also, if you have been enjoying my content, I would highly recommend following me on X at @psb_punk for more insight and content. I wish everyone the best of luck for Gameweek 14, and I hope you all get those green arrows!
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