The Best FPL Transfer Tips For Gameweek 13
Gameweek 13 of FPL is upon us after the international break, and we are now in a crucial phase of the season where active managers will be seeking to gain an edge over their less-engaged counterparts. However, the international break has thrown some curveballs with highly owned players such as Mitoma and Bowen potentially missing out on Gameweek 13. Additionally, yellow flags on some popular picks have put FPL managers in a precarious position. This week appears to have few immediate advantage picks, so investing long-term may be the better strategy.
There will be no more international breaks in the remainder of the year, and Gameweek 15 will mark the first-midweek league fixture of the season. Liverpool, Brighton, Newcastle, and Aston Villa have a grueling immediate schedule, so it would be wise to pick players who are definite starters and avoid risky picks. The chart below by Legomané provides a clear illustration of the upcoming fixture congestion from Gameweek 13 to Gameweek 20.
FPL: Gameweek 13
As we move forward, every transfer becomes increasingly significant, especially for those who have already used their wildcard. Manchester City and Brentford, the two popular teams for FPL picks, will blank in Gameweek 18 but may double in Gameweek 20. Successfully navigating through this period may pose a challenge unless you have a clear long-term plan. Before diving into the article, let’s take a look at the odds for Gameweek 13.
For the odds, I am using FPL Review’s Massive Data Model’s Raw Data. This data is based on the assumption that a player plays 90 minutes and comes from the site’s Massive Data Model, which is known to be more predictive than cleaned Bookmaker Odds. Arsenal, Crystal Palace, and Fulham make the top three in Clean Sheet odds, while Brentford, Aston Villa, and Liverpool are at the bottom of the Clean Sheet data.
Erling Haaland tops the chart of Gameweek 11 Scorer Data, with 0.79 eGoals/90 and Anytime Scoring % of 55%, with Heung Min Son and João Pedro making it to the top three with Anytime Scoring % of 48% and 42% respectively.
We’ve partnered with Drafthound to bring you analysis on fixtures, projected points, and more for the 2023-24 FPL season. Signing up through this link to Drafthound helps us grow, so if you want access to these features, please sign up through our link. If you have not checked out my Gameweek 11 article, you may do so as it is relevant to Gameweek 13. Let’s dive into our transfer targets for Gameweek 11.
Timothy Castagne (£4.5 million, Defender, Fulham)
It may come as a surprise, but Timothy Castagne could be a smart choice for Gameweek 13 and beyond. Fulham has the third-best chance of keeping a clean sheet this Gameweek, with a 30% probability as they host Wolverhampton Wanderers at Craven Cottage. Additionally, Wolves concede a majority of their chances through the flanks, which provides Castagne with an excellent opportunity to grab an attacking return.
Castagne is a fan of bombing forward from defense to help in attack, especially in home games. His underlying numbers at home have been very encouraging, with an expected goal involvement (xGI) of 0.22 against Luton Town, 0.13 against Chelsea, and 0.34 against Sheffield United.
I recommend Castagne not only for his favorable fixture in Gameweek 13 but also for his favorable fixture against Burnley at home in Gameweek 18 when Brentford and Manchester City will blank. Currently selected by only 0.5% of managers, the former Atalanta man could be your ultimate differential pick.
Drafthound gives Castagne 7% odds of scoring and 7% odds of assisting against Wolverhampton. Furthermore, their model backs Castagne to score 3.9 points in the game against Wolves and 16.1 points in the next five game weeks.
William Saliba/Gabriel (£5.4 million/£4.8 million, Defender, Arsenal)
As mentioned earlier in the article, the Gameweek 13 matchups don’t offer many standout picks. However, now is the right time to consider adding another Arsenal defender to your team if you’ve not already tripled up on them. From an FPL perspective, Arsenal is a relevant team and it’s wise to invest in double Arsenal defense over double Arsenal attack, given their underlying numbers this season. The Gunners have conceded the least xG so far this season while ranking seventh in attack.
Out of the two defenders, I prefer Saliba over Gabriel because he is more likely to start every game. Although Gabriel is not a rotation risk, he may miss the occasional game and should be nailed until Jurrien Timber is out. Saliba and Gabriel also offer a decent set-piece threat. With a difficult schedule ahead, I believe that center-backs are more likely to start than full-backs, making Saliba or Gabriel a better choice than Zinchenko.
According to Drafthound, Arsenal has the best odds to keep a clean sheet this game week, and their model predicts Saliba to score 4.6 points against Brentford and 24.2 points in the next five fixtures and Gabriel to score 3.9 points in Gameweek 13 and 20.3 points in the next five games.
Eberechi Eze (£6.1 million, Midfielder, Crystal Palace)
If you’ve been following my Best Transfer Tips series, you’re probably aware of my unwavering love for penalty kick-takers. One player who embodies this is Eberechi Eze. He is set to face Luton Town, a team that is struggling to stay up in the Premier League. While one may argue that Palace is a decent defensive unit, they have been underwhelming in attack due to injuries to their talisman Eze and chief creator Olise. However, now that they are back and fit, I expect the Palace attack to improve significantly.
This season, Luton Town has been brave going forward, especially when playing at Kenilworth Road, which I believe will leave spaces in their defense for Eze to exploit. In addition to that, Eze is also on penalty kick duties, which is another avenue for points for the former Queens Park Rangers man.
So far, Eze has four attacking returns this season and is averaging an xG of 0.38 and an xA of 0.24 per 90 minutes. Drafthound gives Eze a 23% chance of scoring and a 19% chance of assisting against the Hatters. Furthermore, they predict Eze to score 4.4 points in Gameweek 13, and 20.6 points in the next five game weeks.
Bryan Mbeumo (£6.8 million, Midfielder, Brentford)
If you are an analytics manager like me, Bryan Mbeumo has never left your team. Currently priced at 6.8 million, he has performed exceptionally well throughout the season. He ranks third for expected goal involvement (xGI) this season, behind only Haaland and Salah. Mbeumo plays the full 90 minutes, takes penalty kicks, and is part of an attacking Brentford team that ranks sixth for xG this season. He is a transfer you do not want to delay, even though he is facing Arsenal this game week.
His upcoming fixtures from Gameweek 14 against Luton Town (H), Brighton (A), Sheffield United (A), and Aston Villa (H) make him an even more attractive option. It is important to act quickly as buying Mbeumo in Gameweek 14 might cost you 7.0 million. Additionally, Brentford may potentially double in Gameweek 20. Keep in mind that Brentford will have a blank in Gameweek 18, along with Manchester City, so you should plan your transfers in a way where you can bench Mbeumo for that game week.
The Cameroon international has scored 6 goals and provided 3 assists so far this season, with an xG of 0.59 per 90 minutes and an xA of 0.30 per 90 minutes. According to Drafthound, he is predicted to score 4.8 points against Arsenal and 27.0 points in the next five matches.
Dominic Solanke (£6.4 million, Forward, Bournemouth)
With plenty of good options available in midfield, most Fantasy Premier League managers have five quality midfielders in their teams. Having Antoine Semenyo and Cameron Archer available at 4.5 million as our third forward option (eighth attacker) means there is not much room to add another forward to our teams, with Erling Haaland already occupying one of the three available spots. Ollie Watkins has a 43.5% ownership due to him sitting second in the top-scoring forwards list.
However, if you are one of those managers with a three-paying-forward set-up and in need of a third forward, Dominic Solanke might just be the answer. Andoni Iraola’s side is known to play attractive attacking football, and his philosophy seems to be taking shape after a turbulent start to his Bournemouth career. Bournemouth’s 2-0 win at home against Newcastle in Gameweek 12 was their best performance, and the man doing the damage for the Cherries was big Dom Solanke.
Scoring a brace from an expected goals involvement (xGI) of 1.31 against the Magpies, Solanke has averaged expected goals (xG) of 0.44 per 90 minutes, and an expected assists (xA) of 0.06 per 90 minutes. Although Bournemouth was not awarded a penalty in the entire last season, I can say with some confidence that Solanke is their designated penalty-taker.
Bournemouth has favorable fixtures until Gameweek 19 playing Sheffield United(A), Crystal Palace(A), Luton Town(H), Nottingham Forest(A), and Fulham(H) in this period. Drafthound predicts that Solanke has 33% odds of scoring and 17% odds of assisting against Sheffield United in Gameweek 13. Furthermore, they predict him to score 4.7 points in Gameweek 13 and 22.6 points in the next five game weeks.
Conclusion
With a period of fixture congestion approaching, it’s important to prioritize players who are likely to play a lot of minutes rather than those who are at risk of rotation. It’s also helpful to have some backup players on your bench during this time. Our main objective should be to navigate the blank game weeks while maximizing our points during the double game weeks. Every transfer is valuable, so it’s best to avoid taking point hits if possible. I wish everyone success in achieving high scores.
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