Southampton’s Premier League Survival Plan
This forthcoming summer window will provide the biggest test for Southampton and their owners as they prepare to return to the Premier League. In the 22/23 season that got Southampton relegated, they spent over £100m on players, with the likes of Romeo Lavia, Samuel Edozie, Sekou Mara, and many more joining the summer spending spree. This lack of experience and losing key dressing room figures like Oriol Romeu led to their downfall, finishing rock bottom.
However, Southampton stepped up and bounced back to the Premier League after a 1-0 win over Leeds in the playoff final. After the previous relegation, their owners admitted that only buying youngsters was not sustainable if they want to survive in the Premier League. Although Southamptons recruitment plan is that of buying young players and selling them for profits in the future, Southampton’s money man from Sport Republic, Dragan Solak, stated:
“it’s a 10-year plan and we are just at the begining. i’m glad that we had this sporting success. We’ll try to capitalise on it, but we’ll continue working on our long-term projects to make Saints a real, stable, forever Premier League club. We’ll try to continue developing young players but we also learned one thing. You cannot just have young players and focus on only player development. You need the leaders on the pitch”
Dragan Solak speaking to TalkSport
With the idea that Southampton will still try to imbed youth talent into their recruitment, they will also look for experience to attempt to solidify their premier league status.
The System
Southampton has used many systems in the Championship, starting with a 2-3 first-phase build-up that saw both fullbacks invert. However, this led to exposure and, ultimately, four losses on the bounce. However, during their unbeaten run, Southampton opted to build in a 3-1 or a 2-1, with Manning dropping alongside Bednarek and Taylor Harwood-Bellis. This allowed the side to exploit Kyle Walker-Peters’ attacking threat and Adam Armstrong playing in the half-spaces.
Russell Martin also deployed Argentinian Charly Alcaraz as a false 9, dropping deep to drag the opposition defences out of line, allowing Adam Armstrong or Kamaldeen Sulemana to break the lines.
However, Russell Martin, towards the back end of the season, deployed a 3-at-the-back shape in possession, which still allowed Walker-Peters to extend high and wide; the left centre-back was a conventional CB with Jack Stephens often being deployed. On some occasions, Stephens would invert himself alongside Downes. Martin usually builds up with a single six rather than two. This system is similar to or a version of Johan Cruyff’s 3-4-3 diamond shape. This in-possession structure allowed Adam Armstrong to continue operating in the half-space and was evident in the goal that sealed Southampton’s promotion back to the Premier League.
There is a misconception that this is a classic five-at-back formation, which it has been at the moment; however, with the correct players being signed and, as shown below, the out-of-possession shape is that of a back four, which Martin preferred in his time at Southampton. This would be the most probable set-up in our return to the Premier League.
Below are the potential in-possession shape and the two possible out-of-possession shapes that Russell Martin often uses:
The Transfer Window
Recent news reports by the BBC suggest Martin will have a central role in recruitment, which is nothing short of excellent news. An intelligent manager having the final say and lead in recruitment is so vital because he knows EXACTLY who he needs and where to help the system function with the correct profiles
- This leaves Southampton needing a minimum of seven or eight signings:
- Goalkeeper- capable of playing out the back and comfortable on the ball
- Left-back or left centre-back that is comfortable operating in either scenario
- Central centre-back Bednarek or Harwood-Bellis could operate this role using Bella-Kotchap on the right. However, the German is expected to leave, so a centre-back should be on Southampton’s shopping list.
- Potentially an RB dependent if Walker-Peters leaves, which is looking ever likely
- CM- Number 8, excellent ball carrier and chance creator
- LW- A Player that excels in 1v1 situations and can go to the byline or come inside and defend when needed
- ST- True number 9, but capable of dropping deep with good link-up play.
Goalkeeper
Gavin Bazunu is set to be out for most of the season due to a ruptured Achilles he suffered in April. The Saints will now almost certainly be in the hunt for a Goalkeeper who can play on the ball but also keep the ball out of the net. With Gavin Bazunu having a -10xg conceded (he conceded ten more goals than he should have) and although I still believe in his talents and that he will be an excellent young goalkeeper, the stats don’t read well; therefore, this position will be vital in their bid, for survival.
Carl Rushworth
Rushworth is a 22-year-old English goalkeeper who spent last season on loan at Swansea City. He played all 46 Championship games for the club, ranking 4th for xg prevented at 4, which is a +14 on Gavin Bazunu. Rushworth is also somewhat comfortable with his feet.
Rushworth has a save percentage of 70%, 7.5% more than Bazunu, who has lacked the shot-stopping abilities the past season. Swansea fans rate the Englishman highly. The England youth goalkeeper would be a cheap and affordable option for Southampton. However, his lack of Premier League experience at his age could be a worry. Another issue with the deal would be Brighton’s plans this summer, as the player will report back to them for pre-season. Should Brighton wish to keep him, the price would be a bit more expensive for us. The keeper is also comfortable with his feet, but it remains to be seen whether he is good enough for the Russell Martin position in goal with a high ball volume played through the feet. Although Alex McCarthy was a force in goal for Southampton, making key saves in the playoff semi-final and final to help push Southampton to final glory, as a goalkeeper, he isn’t the strongest with his feet.
Ultimately, Carl Rushworth would be a good option for Southampton; however, with his lack of Premier League experience, I am unsure about him; that doesn’t discredit his abilities in goal; it just questions whether he is ready for the step-up.
Arijanet Muric
Arijanet Muric has just been relegated with Burnley, after only playing 900 minutes of football. Burnley fans were stumped as to why Kompany didn’t put him in to replace James Trafford sooner, who has had a rough start to life in the Premier League.
Muric is an excellent goalkeeper who won’t hang around for long in the Championship. For around £10-£15m, Southampton could get a top shot-stopper who is capable with his feet. Playing ten accurate long balls per 90, 67% pass completion rate. Muric is possibly one of the best with the ball at his feet in the Premier League. In his minuscule number of minutes, he has prevented 6xg, which is +16 on Gavin Bazunu. he also boasts an 80% save percentage, which would be the best in the league with the 2nd most xg prevented. With his minutes being so low and his statistics so high, he would arguably be the best option for Southampton in their most crucial position to recruit this summer.
With Gavin Bazunu’s lack of presence and low shot-stopping numbers, Muric would be an excellent upgrade on him. He would give the Saints a massive boost in their bid for survival in the Premier League and their hope of executing their 10-year plan.
Verdict
My verdict is that Southampton should sign Arijanet Muric this summer over Carl Rushworth due to his excellent numbers and the Premier League experience he offers Rushworth. There are also some honourable mentions, with Caoimhin Kelleher and Brice Samba being two options the Saints could consider. However, this is a low chance so that Muric would be a better option.
Centerback and left centerback
Southampton will be looking for two centre-backs this window. One could be more physically dominant, and the other could play left-back or left-sided centre-back, depending on whether the Saints are on or off the ball.
Sepp van den Berg (SVDB)
SVDB is a 22-year-old Dutch centre-back who has recently revealed his desire to leave Liverpool. The Merseyside club is offering him around £20 million, although the price is steep, Southampton has reportedly been interested in the Dutchman, too.
Sepp isn’t statistically what you would call a typical Russell Martin centre-back; however, that doesn’t mean he isn’t comfortable on the ball. SVDB is composed on the ball with ability, and although he doesn’t set the world alight like Harwood-Bellis, he is competent enough to function in the system. For example, Russell Martin has revolutionised how Jan Bednarek plays football, and I’m sure he could do the same with Sepp.
The Dutchman stands at 6ft 2′ and operates in the centre of Mainz’s back 3, where he is dominant in ariel duels, clearances and blocks, as shown by the FBREF chart to the left. SVDB wins 65% of his ground duels and 69% of his ariel duels, reinforcing his physical prowess in the box. Southampton will need an influx of physicality this year to survive, and Harwood-Bellis will need help on the physicality front to complement his ball-playing abilities. It’s similar to how Arsenal have Gabriel and Saliba. Saliba is excellent on the ground and the ball, whilst Gabriel is exceptional in the air, complimenting each other and leading to a formidable defensive rock.
At a price of hopefully less than £20m and more around £15m, Southampton won’t find many better young defenders who are undoubtedly capable of stepping up to the Premier League. Although young, he still has the experience to play in the Premier League and should make a seamless transition.
Jacob Greaves
Jacob Greaves is a 6ft 3in English centre-half who plays for East Yorkshire side Hull City in the Championship. Although Greaves is only 23 years old, he has already played 212 games of senior football, the large majority for his beloved Hull City.
Jacob Greaves is more of what you would call a typical Russell Martin centre-half, with him being a very competent ball-playing centre-back with high carries per90, as shown by the chart. He is also decent defensively, being ariely dominant and sound on the ground. The main attribute of Greaves that would appeal to the system we could potentially look to play is his ability to play left back, too. Greaves is left-footed, so he can transition easily into left-back when Southampton are out of possession, allowing the out-of-possession structure to be a 4-4-2 or a 4-1-4-. This ability to easily transition from fullback to left centre-back complements the system. It is potentially a precious asset and strengthens the squad.
Jacob Greaves wouldn’t be cheap, however. It’s a price that could be worth paying due to his qualities and what he offers the side in and out of possession. The cost would be around £15m-£20m, and the fee is steep for one position, but because of our now fortunate financial position in the Premier League, we can spend this type of money.
Jordan Torunarigha
Torunarigha is a left-footed, 26-year-old Nigerian 6ft 2Centreback who currently plays for Gent in the Belgian first division where he operates in a back three system, primarily playing as a left centre half in the system where he is seen as a physical and athletic unit.
The Nigerian would be a potential shrewd signing for Southampton. He offers a profile similar to Jacob Greaves’, seamlessly transitioning between left-back and left centre-back, allowing the rest of the system to operate with fluidity. Jordan is excellent on the ground, with the ball at his feet, and defensively. This could then potentially be complemented by the use of SVDB, which is better in the air, and we would then have the likes of Harwood-Bellis, who is excellent in both areas, leading us to a balanced and complimentary back line, which is vital in football. His high progressive carrying and passing numbers also suggest his ability to break lines with his movement or his passing, which is also a crucial asset in a Russell Martin system.
The price would change everyone’s minds. It would be around £6m-£9m, an exceptionally affordable fee for the qualities Jordan could bring.
Jaka Bijol
Jaka Bijol is a 25-year-old right-footed centre centre-back who currently plays for Udinese in the Serie A. Bijol has also caught the eye of onlookers watching Euro 2024 with some excellent performances for Slovenia in their games, helping them reach the round of 16.
Bijol has many similar qualities to SVDB in that he often operates in the centre of the back 3, which is a position and profile Southampton needs. The Slovenian is also good and more dominant in the air, with a physical frame standing at around 6ft 3in, leaning closer to 6ft 4in. As shown by the FBREF chart to the right, he is a top defender in the air, being in the top 94th percentile for Ariel duels that were won, which would complement the defenders that are better on the ground, such as Greaves or Torunarigha and then Harwood-Bellis provides a balance of both. Bijol isn’t as great on the ball; however, as I have said previously, if Russell Martin can coach Bednarek into playing with his feet, he can do it to anyone.
Bijol is wanted by a whole host of clubs, including Inter, and has a transfer market value of around £8.5m, so a transfer deal would potentially be between £10m-£12.5m. The price alone is better than what SVDB would cost, and in my opinion, Bijol would offer more physicality and a more significant presence when defending the box.
Ronnie Edwards
In light of recent news reported by the BBC and Alfie House, Southampton is set to sign Ronnie Edwards for an initial fee of £3 million. Yes, that wasn’t a typo. I think £3 million for one of the best English CB prospects right now is an absolute steal. Ronnie Edwards is a right-footed, 5ft 10in centre-back, and he operates most of his time for Peterborough either centrally or drifting to LCB in possession, showing he is capable with both feet. There is a downside to using a right-footed CB at LB/LCB; however, most people I have spoken to regarding the matter who watch him regularly have confirmed that it shouldn’t be an issue, and he is capable of performing that role to a high enough level.
The ability to play that LCB role is vital to how the system could potentially function for the upcoming Premier League season. Do I think he will play all 38 games? No. However, I would presume he plays a decent chunk of them and can slot in reasonably seamlessly. He is also a great on-the-ball defender (Russell Martin’s favourite), as shown by his 91% pass accuracy last season, which is just immense.
Edwards will have to step up in terms of quality because League One is not the Premier League. However, I wholeheartedly believe he has the skill set to make the huge step up and fulfil his incredibly high potential as it is.
The Verdict
In my opinion, I would move for Both Jordan Torunarigha and Jaka Bijol as the two centre-backs I would sign this summer. This is because of the expense of the deal; we would save £m’s to spend elsewhere but still bring in the correct profiles and players that complement the system and profiles Russell Martin wants.
Right-Back
With the likelihood of Kyle Walker-Peters moving to West Ham in a deal, Southampton need an RB who can expect to play high and wide, maintaining width on the right-hand side and providing some defensive cover. Southampton have been linked with Yukinari Sugawara; honestly, he is the only RB we should be going after. We should do whatever we need to land the Japanese fullback to replace Kyle Walker-Peters.
Yukinari Sugawara
Yukinari Sugawara is a Japanese right-back who currently plays for AZ Alkmaar. At 24 years old, he is close to entering the prime of his career, and his 23/24 season showed just that.
Yukinari Sugawara took off this season, registering some top-level numbers in the attacking third, which is perfect as the right-back in this system will spend much of his time high and wide when attacking. Especially as in the Premier League, you have to have the quality in the final third, and Sugawara offers us that in abundance. Yakinari registered 13 g/a in all competitions this season, which is excellent for a fullback. Sugawara is also a suitable ball carrier, helping drive the side into the final third and taking teams on the counter. Still, his best or one of his best assets is having that final quality in the final third and making decisions there, often making the right choices in where to play his pass.
Yukinari Sugawara would be expensive, around £15m-£18. However, at that price and how well he would fPriceto Russell Martin’s system, he would be one hell of a way to replace Kyle’s attacking quality, and Southampton should do anything to get him. Hence, he is my only right-back choice.
Midfielders
With Southampton moving ever closer to the signing of Flynn Downes and a deal is likely to be agreed meaning the number 6 position is ticked off, we also have the options of Smallbone and Aribo to play in the secondary midfielder role along with Lallana and even Shea Charles if need be. This leaves the 8/10 position that Aribo was playing in and Charly Alcaraz also had been playing in before his loan departure to Juventus in the winter transfer window, also an area where Joe Rothwell and Stuart Armstrong would pop up.
Matt O’Riley
Matt O’Riley is a Danish 23-year-old central midfielder who plays for Celtic and has previously played under Russell Martin at MK Dons. Martin also tried to sign the Danish man while he was in charge of Swansea for a deal of around £1 million, but the Swansea board stupidly pulled the plug on the deal. He left to go to Celtic and is now valued at £30 million.
Matt Oriley has been sensational this season, being one of the best players in the SPFL. O’Riley registered 18 goals and 13 assists in the league. The chart to the right doesn’t include SPFL statistics, so the data for goals is low. Matt O’riley is an exceptional midfielder, being superior in the half-spaces and causing havoc for the fullback and centre-back, as this is where most of his play comes from. He is also elite at creating chances and scoring goals with his excellent close control, making late runs into the box, all whilst being a nuisance to mark. He is competent with both feet but is predominantly left-footed. As with Sugawara, his final third decision-making tops him off as a player, always making the right decisions on where to pass or move with the ball.
Statistically, he is excellent with the ball, averaging 70+ touches per 90 minutes, 83% pass accuracy, and 2.58 chances created per 90 minutes. These are all elite-creating numbers, which would be a severe asset to Southampton should they survive in the Premier League.
Southampton were interested in him last summer; however, the relegation to the Championship made any deal impossible due to the finances involved. However, now that they have an abundance of riches after promotion to the Premier League, a deal would be probable, and even at the £30 million mark, Southampton is not deterred. Russell Martin wants O’Riley, and he would be a priority for him and given he is now heading the recruitment, a deal is probable. The only issue is the other clubs involved and the potential to be moved to a Champions League club like Atletico Madrid; however, if Southampton acts fast, they can land their man with O’Riley, a big fan of Martin himself.
Yet again, as with Sugawara, this should be our only target for the 8/10 role and has to be a priority no matter what. Therefore, my verdict would always be O’Riley. Should it not be possible to keep him, Charly Alcaraz should play the role, and that is it.
Left Winger
Southampton need a winger who predominantly plays on the left and hugs the touchline, only breaking inside in the final third. The winger must be exceptional in 1v1 situations and able to beat their man most of the time, as they will be isolated and able to create chances by themselves.
Jack Clarke
Jack Clarke shouldn’t need too much of an introduction as he is currently one of the hottest prospects on the affordable market, especially for Southampton. Jack is a twenty-three-year-old, 5ft 11in/ 5ft 10in English left winger who currently plays for Championship side Sunderland.
Clarke is one of the best left-wingers on the market currently, especially with what Martin would want and profile for his left-wingers to be able to do. Clarke can go inside his defender, cutting in scoring goals, especially this season, contributing to 15 goals for the black cats in their Championship campaign, or he can go the other side with his left foot and cause damage to the opposition. That way, he also contributed to four assists this season. Clarke is also an excellent dribbler and carrier with the ball; as shown by the chart from FBREF, he is in the top 99th percentile for progressive carries and take-ons. The Englishman also would allow Southampton to isolate the player on the left-hand side, knowing with confidence he would be a handful for the opposition to deal with and create chances on his own, therefore being the perfect winger to isolate 1v1.
The price could be a stumbling block, but the price has been reported as an interest in the winger, and a price tag of around £ 20m-£25 m could sanction a deal for Southampton. The fee is significant, but the quality he would bring to the side could be the difference between relegation and staying in the Championship.
Jon Rowe
Jon Rowe is an English, left-footed left-winger who also plays his trade in the Championship. However, this time, it is for the east Anglian side, Norwich City. He is 21 years old and stands around 5ft 7in tall.
Jon Rowe had a fantastic start to the 23/24 season, scoring in all four of the opening games in the Championship, and this fine form continued until around the beginning of February when he picked up an injury that kept him out until April. Still, he was never back to full fitness. When fit, Rowe was a handful and a menace for the opposition with his ability to play either side and rotate with Borja Sainz on the other side; his pace and power whilst running at the defenders is his main threat; however, he has a wand of a left foot that would give Southampton a lot of cutting edge In the final third of the pitch. He isn’t the exact profile we need at the left-wing spot. However, nothing suggests he couldn’t do the role that Martin could potentially want him to play. Rowe averages almost five touches in the opposition box per 90, a key stat as Southampton had some of the most box entries in the league last season. Rowe isn’t as good as Clarke at taking on his man, as shown by the graph; however, Jack’s numbers are outstanding and harsh, which sets him at the bar for everyone to be at. Jon Rowe can still take on his man, cause problems for the opposition, and create the chance from nothing Southampton would need.
Jon Rowe wouldn’t come cheap at around £12m-£15m; however, it’s more affordable than a deal for Jack Clarke would go in at, and if we couldn’t land Jack Clarke, then Rowe could be a good option. Norwich won’t feel inclined to sell. However, the extra funds could help with a rebuild under new manager Johannes Hoff Thorup.
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens is an English 19-year-old, right-footed, left-winger who stands at 5ft 8in height and currently plays in the Bundesliga for Champions League finalists Borussia Dortmund.
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens has had a decent breakthrough season at Dortmund, playing just over 1000 minutes in the league, scoring one, assisting four, and scoring one in the UCL. Jamie is a very raw talent with blistering speed and excellent take-on ability, as shown by the graph from FBREF being in the top 94th percentile for successful take-on. The Englishman also averages 3.65 shots per 90, showing he gets into the positions to create and score. He is just raw and needs time. His speed is something that all defenders would be aware of, and leaving him isolated 1v1 with a defender could be devastating for the opposition. With how the system would function with him at the left-wing spot, he would be a nuisance to fullbacks up and down the country, create some real chances for Southampton, and give the ability to create something from nothing.
A move away from Dortmund may sound ridiculous right now. However, with Dortmund wanting to sign Jadon Sancho permanently and having Malen and Adeyemi occupying the wide areas, Bynoe-Gittens could potentially look at a move away. Although this move is very ambitious, it would and could make sense for all parties, with Jamie continuing his development in a different league and getting games week in and week out.
The verdict
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens would be an excellent choice; however, the likelihood of a deal for the Englishman is very slim, meaning Jack Clarke has to be the priority for this position. The additional quality he would bring to the side is astronomical, and he is undoubtedly ready to step up and become Russell Martin’s leading man.
Striker
Here, I would put the obvious Bojan Miovski. However, I feel I have spoken about him so much, and he would still be my number one choice unless someone below changes my mind. Also, the deal around him has gone quiet, with sources close to his agent suggesting nothing has changed since January. Therefore, let’s switch it up a bit with two possible options.
Thijs Dallinga
Thijs Dallinga is a 23-year-old Dutch centre-forward who is right-footed and stands out. He plays in the first tier of French football for Toulouse.
Dallinga scored eighteen goals whilst assisting four across the 23/24 campaign, where Toulouse featured in the Europa League and Ligue 1. The Dutchman has a large frame and has excellent hold-up play, bringing others into play, but he also cleverly uses his frame to get around defenders. For some reason, how he strikes the ball and his presence in the box gives Graziano Pelle vibes, and all Southampton fans know how good he was. He is excellent in the air and a fantastic ‘fox in the box’ finisher from which most of his goals come. He also displays his top-class box movement to get around and create his own space; this is probably his best attribute, as it is hard to come by, especially at the price Dallinga would cost.
Talking of price, I assume he would be anything more than around £20m. For a player of his quality, the idea of a proper bagsman up top for Southampton isn’t a lousy fee compared to the prices being thrown around for players like Broja and Calvert-Lewin, who aren’t supreme Premier League goalscorers.
Ermedin Demirović
Ermedin Demirović is a 26-year-old Bosnian striker who plays for FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga. He is 6 feet tall and right-footed. He is similar to Dallinga in many ways and shows the type of forward Southampton should be after.
The Bosnian is excellent at using his body when getting around defenders to attack the goal. Demirović doesn’t have blistering speed but isn’t a ‘slow’ footballer. He is excellent with the ball at his feet, being a lot more technical In the way he plays, and therefore, he gets a lot of assists where he notched nine in the league, also contributing to fifteen goals. Demirović is also an excellent player inside the box, making clever runs and small movements to deceive the defenders and score goals. Ermedin has a unique catalogue of finishes. He can do it all, long-range, header, flicks, everything. He is an excellent 1v1 player with great composure in front of the goal, which Southampton has missed over the past few seasons. For some reason whatsoever, he gives me Benjamin Šeško vibes when he strikes the ball and how he runs with the ball at his feet. Let’s hope that if he were to sign, he would become better than the Slovenian.
Ermedin Demirović would probably be pretty expensive at around £25m. Added to the fact that other clubs are also obviously interested In the player, it could end up being a bidding war, which is not what Southampton want to entertain. Is he worth that price tag? However, it’s a very steep one.
Verdict
This one is a tough choice as they are very similar in how they both play; however, with Dallinga being the younger and cheaper option, I would opt towards him as I feel he can turn into a top, top striker under the proper development. I think he is ready for that step and to become the focal point of our side.
How do we now set up?
Below are the systems: In possession and then two out-of-possession structures
Obviously, I’m not saying this is a certainty to how we play, along with the fact other transfers may come in; I’m sure when we are under the cosh, it can easily revert to a back 5 with Jack Clarke dropping in and playing a wing-back role. However, this is the primary structure of the system, and it’s not a back five, as some suggest, due to how we will operate when we are on the ball. You can’t play one way all season, too, so there are also other ways the system can look, but for the most part, I believe it would be something like this and our main principles of keeping the ball and waiting for the opposition to move.
Potential Departures
- Paul Onuachu
- Armel Bella-Kotchap
- Kyle Walker-Peters
- Che Adams (if he isn’t gone already)
- Mateusz Lis
- Potentially Jan Bednarek
My Final Message
next season is going to be incredibly tough. We know there will be challenges. We would be very naive and silly to think otherwise, but I ask for one thing: unity. Russell Martin has just signed a 3-year deal. He will not be sacked, plain and simple, no matter how much you want it or how bad it gets. Therefore, you are wasting energy booing, jeering, etc. Spend your energy on what you pay to do, SUPPORT get behind the team, celebrate every tackle, goal kick, and corner, and throw in like it is a goal because, as we had seen as a fanbase, when we get behind the team, like when we played West Brom in the playoffs, we can be a force and a massive factor to winning the game and give the players that boost to play with no fear and confidence. I will reiterate it: get behind the team. They all wear the same badge on the front and support them like our own.
Up The Saints
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